Cold start · Week 1 2026 · Prior-season usage

#	Player	Opp	Score0–100	Roleusage	Effpts/opp	Matchupdefense	ProjPPR pts
1	Derrick HenryBAL	vs. IND	99	93	53	53	22.2
2	Chase BrownCIN	vs. TB	99	77	63	57	23.7
3	Christian McCaffreySF	vs. LA	98	80	55	73	21.5
4	Kenneth Walker IIISEA	vs. NE	97	98	52	35	19.4
5	Bijan RobinsonATL	vs. PIT	97	93	51	51	21.3
6	Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG	vs. DAL	96	80	50	68	18.1
7	Kyren WilliamsLA	vs. SF	95	66	59	51	17.7
8	Jahmyr GibbsDET	vs. NO	95	84	52	36	17.1
9	De'Von AchaneMIA	vs. LV	94	73	57	47	16.6
10	Cam SkatteboNYG	vs. DAL	94	61	68	68	16.8
11	Rhamondre StevensonNE	vs. SEA	93	66	65	60	16.1
12	Saquon BarkleyPHI	vs. WAS	92	100	44	35	14.2
13	Travis EtienneJAX	vs. CLE	92	64	59	5	14.5
14	Audric EstiméNO	vs. DET	91	64	51	88	13.8
15	Kenny GainwellPIT	vs. ATL	90	53	58	29	13.3
16	Chris Rodriguez Jr.WAS	vs. PHI	90	59	51	75	13.3
17	Breece HallNYJ	vs. TEN	89	67	50	40	12.9
18	Jonathan TaylorIND	vs. BAL	88	82	43	79	12.7
19	Ashton JeantyLV	vs. MIA	88	92	43	25	12.5
20	Devin NealNO	vs. DET	87	50	56	88	12.4
21	Devin SingletaryNYG	vs. DAL	86	41	59	68	12.1
22	Ty JohnsonBUF	vs. HOU	86	39	67	46	11.9
23	Javonte WilliamsDAL	vs. NYG	85	60	49	57	11.8
24	Aaron JonesMIN	vs. GB	84	76	44	53	11.7
25	Tony PollardTEN	vs. NYJ	84	74	47	18	11.6
26	RJ HarveyDEN	vs. KC	83	65	50	49	11.6
27	James ConnerARI	vs. LAC	82	52	49	94	11.2
28	Phil MafahDAL	vs. NYG	82	27	75	57	11.1
29	James CookBUF	vs. HOU	81	77	45	46	11.0
30	Zach CharbonnetSEA	vs. NE	81	48	49	35	10.9
31	D'Andre SwiftCHI	vs. CAR	80	62	50	38	10.9
32	Bucky IrvingTB	vs. CIN	79	84	41	83	10.8
33	Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS	vs. PHI	79	45	54	75	10.7
34	Chuba HubbardCAR	vs. CHI	78	44	50	57	10.4
35	Trey BensonARI	vs. LAC	77	47	50	94	10.4
36	Quinshon JudkinsCLE	vs. JAX	77	64	45	60	10.2
37	Jaylen WarrenPIT	vs. ATL	76	58	47	29	10.0
38	J.K. DobbinsDEN	vs. KC	75	67	42	49	8.9
39	Kyle MonangaiCHI	vs. CAR	75	51	47	38	8.5
40	Omarion HamptonLAC	vs. ARI	74	46	40	9	8.5
41	Samaje PerineCIN	vs. TB	73	37	60	57	8.3
42	Woody MarksHOU	vs. BUF	73	65	41	57	8.3
43	Michael CarterARI	vs. LAC	72	44	46	94	8.1
44	Malik DavisDAL	vs. NYG	71	51	51	57	7.7
45	Tyjae SpearsTEN	vs. NYJ	71	40	50	18	7.8
46	Bam KnightARI	vs. LAC	70	32	40	94	7.7
47	Josh JacobsGB	vs. MIN	69	62	40	42	7.6
48	Dylan SampsonCLE	vs. JAX	69	44	48	60	7.5
49	Alvin KamaraNO	vs. DET	68	46	43	88	7.1
50	Blake CorumLA	vs. SF	68	40	45	51	7.0
51	Jaylen WrightMIA	vs. LV	67	46	48	47	6.7
52	Tank BigsbyPHI	vs. WAS	66	33	51	35	6.7
53	Ray DavisBUF	vs. HOU	66	19	83	46	6.6
54	Jaydon BlueDAL	vs. NYG	65	40	41	57	6.5
55	Austin EkelerWAS	vs. PHI	64	42	44	75	6.5
56	Miles SandersDAL	vs. NYG	64	27	58	57	6.5
57	Jordan MasonMIN	vs. GB	63	38	47	53	6.5
58	David MontgomeryDET	vs. NO	62	34	50	36	6.4
59	Rachaad WhiteTB	vs. CIN	62	28	54	83	6.1
60	TreVeyon HendersonNE	vs. SEA	61	34	44	60	6.0
61	Isiah PachecoKC	vs. DEN	60	40	42	31	5.5
62	Isaiah DavisNYJ	vs. TEN	60	20	56	40	5.8
63	Brashard SmithKC	vs. DEN	59	31	60	31	5.5
64	Emari DemercadoARI	vs. LAC	58	21	63	94	5.4
65	Bhayshul TutenJAX	vs. CLE	58	17	78	5	5.4
66	Rico DowdleCAR	vs. CHI	57	42	39	57	5.3
67	Antonio GibsonNE	vs. SEA	56	24	50	60	4.9
68	Raheim SandersCLE	vs. JAX	56	30	49	60	4.8
69	Jawhar JordanHOU	vs. BUF	55	38	36	57	4.8
70	Jordan JamesSF	vs. LA	55	27	46	73	4.8
71	Kimani VidalLAC	vs. ARI	54	40	40	9	4.6
72	Kareem HuntKC	vs. DEN	53	31	43	31	4.5
73	Kendre MillerNO	vs. DET	53	25	46	88	4.5
74	Tyler AllgeierATL	vs. PIT	52	39	39	51	4.0
75	Ameer AbdullahIND	vs. BAL	51	11	69	79	3.9
76	Ty ChandlerMIN	vs. GB	51	36	39	53	4.0
77	Brittain BrownCHI	vs. CAR	50	9	77	38	3.6
78	Justice HillBAL	vs. IND	49	10	79	53	3.6
79	Chris BrooksGB	vs. MIN	49	19	61	42	3.5
80	Andrew BeckNYJ	vs. TEN	48	6	100	40	3.5
81	Najee HarrisLAC	vs. ARI	47	25	46	9	3.4
82	George HolaniSEA	vs. NE	47	17	49	35	3.4
83	Trayveon WilliamsCLE	vs. JAX	46	13	52	60	3.3
84	Hunter LuepkeDAL	vs. NYG	45	16	51	57	3.3
85	Jaleel McLaughlinDEN	vs. KC	45	24	42	49	3.2
86	Keaton MitchellBAL	vs. IND	44	25	38	53	3.2
87	Corey KinerARI	vs. LAC	44	16	43	94	3.2
88	Jeremy McNicholsWAS	vs. PHI	43	14	57	75	3.1
89	Emanuel WilsonGB	vs. MIN	42	29	38	42	2.9
90	Braelon AllenNYJ	vs. TEN	42	20	41	40	3.0
91	Sean TuckerTB	vs. CIN	41	16	43	83	2.8
92	Dare OgunbowaleHOU	vs. BUF	40	12	65	57	2.6
93	Rasheen AliBAL	vs. IND	40	8	59	53	2.5
94	Jaret PattersonLAC	vs. ARI	39	17	40	9	2.5
95	Jerome FordCLE	vs. JAX	38	9	50	60	2.4
96	DJ GiddensIND	vs. BAL	38	24	36	79	2.4
97	Nick ChubbHOU	vs. BUF	37	21	37	57	2.4
98	Clyde Edwards-HelaireKC	vs. DEN	36	20	39	31	2.3
99	Khalil HerbertNYJ	vs. TEN	36	26	34	40	2.4
100	Zavier ScottMIN	vs. GB	35	11	48	53	2.0
101	Jacardia WrightSEA	vs. NE	34	19	38	35	1.9
102	Nate CarterATL	vs. PIT	34	15	44	51	1.9
103	Raheem MostertLV	vs. MIA	33	7	59	25	1.7
104	Zamir WhiteLV	vs. MIA	32	11	45	25	1.6
105	British BrooksHOU	vs. BUF	32	13	41	57	1.6
106	Will ShipleyPHI	vs. WAS	31	7	60	35	1.6
107	Ollie Gordon IIMIA	vs. LV	31	19	33	47	1.6
108	Brian RobinsonSF	vs. LA	30	12	41	73	1.5
109	AJ DillonPHI	vs. WAS	29	8	54	35	1.5
110	Tahj BrooksCIN	vs. TB	29	12	40	57	1.5
111	Kene NwangwuNYJ	vs. TEN	28	18	36	40	1.4
112	Terrell JenningsNE	vs. SEA	27	9	34	60	1.4
113	LeQuint Allen Jr.JAX	vs. CLE	27	9	49	5	1.4
114	Tyler BadieDEN	vs. KC	26	7	46	49	1.4
115	Cam AkersSEA	vs. NE	25	3	35	35	1.0
116	Velus Jones Jr.SEA	vs. NE	25	13	38	35	1.1
117	Evan HullNO	vs. DET	24	10	38	88	1.0
118	Amar JohnsonLAC	vs. ARI	23	12	34	9	0.7
119	Josh WilliamsTB	vs. CIN	23	10	34	83	0.7
120	Dameon PierceKC	vs. DEN	22	11	33	31	0.6
121	Myles GaskinSEA	vs. NE	21	12	32	35	0.6
122	Frank Gore Jr.BUF	vs. HOU	21	1	76	46	0.6
123	Kaleb JohnsonPIT	vs. ATL	20	9	32	29	0.5
124	DeeJay DallasJAX	vs. CLE	19	3	39	5	0.5
125	Owen WrightTB	vs. CIN	19	7	32	83	0.4
126	Tyler GoodsonIND	vs. BAL	18	4	35	79	0.4
127	Roschon JohnsonCHI	vs. CAR	18	2	54	38	0.3
128	Kalel MullingsTEN	vs. NYJ	17	3	34	18	0.2
129	Hassan HaskinsLAC	vs. ARI	16	3	36	9	0.2
130	Kendall MiltonCIN	vs. TB	16	8	29	57	0.2
131	D'Ernest JohnsonNE	vs. SEA	15	4	32	60	0.2
132	Adam PrenticeDEN	vs. KC	14	4	30	49	0.1
133	Trevor EtienneCAR	vs. CHI	14	2	38	57	0.2
134	Ronnie RiversLA	vs. SF	13	2	31	51	0.1
135	Craig ReynoldsDET	vs. NO	12	1	30	36	0.0
136	Dylan LaubeLV	vs. MIA	12	1	32	25	0.0
137	Julius ChestnutTEN	vs. NYJ	11	1	29	18	0.0
138	Nyheim HinesNO	vs. DET	0	2	22	88	-0.1
139	Chase EdmondsWAS	vs. PHI	0	0	51	75	0.0
140	Travis HomerCHI	vs. CAR	0	0	19	38	-0.0
141	Jakob JohnsonHOU	vs. BUF	0	0	51	57	0.0
142	Elijah MitchellKC	vs. DEN	0	4	25	31	0.0
143	Gary BrightwellCIN	vs. TB	0	0	51	57	0.0
144	Avery WilliamsNYJ	vs. TEN	0	0	51	40	0.0
145	Trey SermonPIT	vs. ATL	0	0	51	29	0.0
146	Eric GrayNYG	vs. DAL	0	0	51	68	0.0
147	Lew Nichols IIIPIT	vs. ATL	0	0	51	29	0.0
148	Jordan MimsTEN	vs. NYJ	0	0	51	18	0.0
149	Jacob SaylorsDET	vs. NO	0	0	51	36	0.0
150	Isaac GuerendoSF	vs. LA	0	0	51	73	0.0
151	Sione VakiDET	vs. NO	0	0	51	36	0.0
152	Ulysses Bentley IVIND	vs. BAL	0	4	25	79	0.0
153	Robbie OuztsSEA	vs. NE	0	2	25	35	0.0
154	Jarquez HunterLA	vs. SF	0	0	51	51	0.0

85 Strong·55 Average·22 Weak·Q Questionable·OUT Out/IR

How the Start Score works

The formula. Each player's projected PPR points for the upcoming week is estimated as: Role × Efficiency × Matchup × Availability. That projected value is then converted to a 0–100 score by percentile rank within the position — so a score of 85 means the player ranks in roughly the top 15% of startable players at their position this week.

Role is recent-weighted usage over the last five games: WOPR (weighted opportunity rate = 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air yards share) for receivers, total opportunities for running backs, pass attempts for quarterbacks. Recency weighting is exponential — the most recent game counts 40%, the previous 25%, then 15%, 10%, 10%. Role is the heaviest term because usage is the most stable week-to-week predictor of fantasy output.

Efficiency is PPR points per opportunity over the same window, regressed 50% toward the positional mean. This prevents small samples from producing noise-driven extremes — a receiver who scored on one target in three weeks doesn't project as a top-10 asset.

Matchup is a bounded multiplier (0.85–1.15) combining two signals: how many fantasy points the opposing defense has allowed to this position in recent weeks, and the game's Vegas implied team total. A higher implied total means more expected scoring opportunity. The 0.85–1.15 bound ensures matchup adjusts the projection without overpowering role — a great matchup for a low-usage player is still a bad start.

Availability takes the more conservative of nflverse's official injury designation and Sleeper's injury status. Out, IR, or Doubtful → 0 (don't start). Questionable → ×0.9 haircut. Active → ×1.0.

Cold start (Weeks 1–4). When fewer than three current-season weeks exist for a player, the score uses prior-season usage as the Role baseline. These scores are labeled lower-confidence. As current-season data accumulates the prior-season signal decays out — fully phased out by around Week 5.

Data provenance. All inputs are computed from nflverse data (CC-BY 4.0) and Sleeper's public, keyless API. No machine-learning model is used. Every weight and assumption is published here; nothing is a black box. PPR scoring is assumed throughout; scores may differ for standard or half-PPR leagues.

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Informational only — not betting, DFS, or lineup advice. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. PPR scoring assumed. Data via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0) and Sleeper. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or Sleeper.